Coinbase Q1 Preview — The 3 Numbers That Move COIN

Coinbase reports Q1 earnings next week. Three line items will move the stock more than headline EPS.

Subscription revenue is the most important. Q4 figure of $510M was a 35% YoY jump, mostly driven by Coinbase One, USDC interest sharing, and staking. Anything below $510M reads as Coinbase One growth slowing.

Derivatives is second. Third is custody and prime — institutional custody is on a quiet tear post-ETF, and prime brokerage AUM has grown 60% YoY.